Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.596604 2.091346 2.752300 3.720520 5.138641e+00 7.199467e+00 10.538194
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.042300 1.542531 2.325060 3.703303 6.221920e+00 1.097887e+01 21.673484
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.798930 1.317106 2.253378 4.226444 8.775149e+00 2.039981e+01 60.605814
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.620810 1.123032 2.154257 4.727801 1.224510e+01 3.930568e+01 206.297512
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.500422 0.985113 2.107109 5.419515 1.790537e+01 8.618472e+01 1124.920286
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.406352 0.861513 2.035486 6.104039 2.609372e+01 2.072403e+02 14002.031379
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.313504 0.701188 1.784260 6.034547 3.212219e+01 4.214076e+02 600500.510426
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.241067 0.562042 1.517223 5.668785 3.666319e+01 8.109191e+02 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.199896 0.488783 1.414231 5.966819 4.984660e+01 2.547812e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.175930 0.453822 1.422616 6.952809 8.165327e+01 1.953475e+04 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.159049 0.433117 1.476091 8.479474 1.517570e+02 1.302553e+06 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.138769 0.393310 1.428133 9.329699 2.436942e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.115211 0.335798 1.275656 9.164830 3.261134e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.095097 0.283021 1.112584 8.607292 3.976690e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.084432 0.260478 1.087181 9.616484 7.528943e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074962 0.238743 1.051904 10.555949 1.472516e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067711 0.222897 1.040021 11.996110 3.579646e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.061156 0.207341 1.019142 13.413147 9.749421e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.053106 0.182533 0.919490 12.902556 1.572280e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045709 0.158264 0.807839 11.739888 1.956335e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.041225 0.145465 0.768465 12.254525 5.375827e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038635 0.140288 0.781353 14.450042 5.964332e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036807 0.138005 0.816369 18.025213 9.536019e+08 NaN NaN